For: www.wireville.com |
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Success In The Southeast Recent reports from Electrical Contractors and Communications Contractors leave little doubt that the IBS (Integrated Building Systems), Telephone Systems, and Datacom Structured Cabling Systems are “on fire”. Despite the plague of rising copper cable costs, installations of Cat 5e and Cat 6 datacom copper cable remain healthy and a significant revenue stream for these contractors. Demand for more fiber to the desk or work zone is a side effect of the bleak picture on copper costs. Locations with known long-life facilities are comparing the copper versus fiber life cycle costs and fiber is more often the winner. Mike Rice, Cabling Project Manager for Communication Planning Corporation (Jacksonville, FL) said there are some new aspects to their project work that are more important than expected. “First of all, the copper cable has become the focus of jobsite thieves. Recently a major electrical contractor in North Florida reported a copper cable theft of more than $20,000. Now their jobsite trailers have security cameras. The problem has generated jokes like ‘We are hiring a tail gunner for the cable delivery truck.’ We think this security issue will not go away anytime soon.” Scot Hancock, Sr.Telephone Technician for CPC www.communicationplanning.com added the importance of a well-planned infrastructure, “We know that a smart cabling system is one of the most important barriers to downstream costs for MACs (Moves, Additions, &Changes) and repairs.” He added the properly documented infrastructure that is fully labeled cuts many hours of hunting for the problem. “All our trucks carry the DYMO Rhino labelers and a Fluke Networks DTX cable analyzer, and we save the test records for the customers. We have more than ample data to show how much cost is eliminated by ‘doing it the right way’. The craft intensive installation requirement for Cat 6 copper is too delicate to go it alone. We are using the Beast Cabling System to insure the cable installs are delivering maximum performance with minimum loss due to cable stress during the installation. We have used this system for the past two years and it helps the project flow smoothly.” Michael Shannahan, VP-Operations said stay focused on safety and code compliance as well, like fire stops. “The job must be performed in a proper and professional manner to insure the safety of the installers and the customer.” We use Unique Fire Stop Products (http://www.uniquefirestop.com/) that we get through CSC (www.gocsc.com). Never cut corners on safety. The only real problem associated with this growth in business is lack of well-trained technicians to fill the expanding job market. We are always looking for cabling and telephone technicians.” Mike Heisler of CSC told us the shortage of trained technicians is being felt all over the Southeast. We checked with Barry Simons (ADS Telecom), Brian Chancey (Area Communications), Steve Strumlauf (AIC – American International Communications), and Michael Lohr (Ensource.net). All of these companies have reported outstanding business growth, but a real shortage in trained technicians to meet their increased needs. However, we found the fiber optic installer technician resource growing as more talent passes through the outstanding training programs of the Light Brigade www.lightbrigade.com, the Fiber Optic Association www.thefoa.org, and BICSI www.bicsi.org. Will fiber eventually replace copper as the primary type of cabling? There will be many factors driving the outcome, but perhaps the ever-increasing appetite for bandwidth will give fiber optics the edge. Abandoned Cable Removal services seems to be more stimulated by the “recycled copper” dollars than the NEC (National Electrical Code). There are many important issues before the National Fire Protection Association in this code cycle and upcoming cycles. You can LEAD, FOLLOW, or GET OUT OF THE WAY, but you must join the NFPA www.nfpa.org, if want to be part of the process. We recommend it highly. REMEMBER: SAFETY IS TOO IMPORTANT TO IGNORE But that’s just my opinion… Frank Bisbee
AN OPEN LETTER TO THE PLENUM CABLE INDUSTRY Dear Plenum Cable Advocates: Since 1996, I have been
engaged in the advocacy for plenum cables meeting the performance criteria set
forth in NFPA 90A in the NFPA 262 fire test method. On the other side of
the debate has been a formidable foe in the fluoropolymer industry with a
seemingly unlimited budget for time, consult and PR shenanigans proposing
UL-2424 cable as a sole means of telecommunications cabling. A new battle
front has been brought to my attention and I believe it may provide the staunchest
fight to date over the issue for the coming years. This most recent correspondence is an extremely well thought out and tactically planned event. It is my opinion as a strategist that the fluoropolymer interests will seek the following with this latest blitzkrieg: 1. Divide and conquer interested parties: While this is not a direct attack on steel, this is meant to shake the newly poured foundation of a rebuilt alliance between steel and plastic over cable issues. This is a divide and conquer attempt in my opinion and the adversarial interests would rather fight two fronts against plastics and steel individually than to fight a unified group of industries. 2. Challenge NFPA 262 Premise: This is a direct challenge to the NFPA 262 test and the limits established in NFPA 90A. This strategy appears to set up the debunking of the NFPA 262 test for cable; if you (the group that created the 262 test) created a myth to develop it (as Mr. Dillon has continually upheld he was lied to as a committee member), then you can readily be aware of what corners were cut initially and where the weakness of the test is. 3. Designate UL-2424: This is an attempt to take the plenum issue to Fire Tests and to establish UL-2424 as the premier test for cable. 4. Challenge LC interpretation: This is an attempt to challenge the Standards Council ruling that "limited combustible" does not apply to cable. Back about 7 years ago, I was working to have an ad hoc industry panel review the testing, detection and limits of NFPA 262. The ad hoc committee and a similar FPRF Technical Advisory Group failed. The fluoropolymer interests objected very loudly with alleged threats of market action to cable company participants causing the withdrawal of industry participants from the projects. That static hid the true objection to the committees' work which could have potentially uncovered a misinterpretation of the initial work in the field, direct technical efforts to bolster the test and revamp smoke detection to more accurate detection methods especially for clear gases emitted including HF and fluorine derivatives currently undetected in the current method due to etching and transparency. If NFPA 262 had been changed dramatically from its initial development, this page in the fluoropolymer activists' playbook would have been neutralized. This hindsight indicates to me that this latest argument has been in existence for many years and likely was being held for an appropriate time. My efforts through JMME were largely funded initially by corporate sponsors; however, due to market changes, I lost my corporate funding in 2004. My participation over the past 2½ years has been at the expense of my personal savings because I am committed to a code system that is not corrupted or manipulated through public relations campaigns or hidden money trails. I do not want to sound like a telethon, but this fight is not over and the scourge to the NFPA process is not eradicated. This fight must not stop and I need your support. I am seeking sponsors to continue JMME participation on the plenum cable issue. With continued success in building our alliance and putting out the fires at NFPA and numerous local jurisdictions, I need to develop a financial backing for the advocacy efforts JMME is putting forth. I believe that my work speaks for itself on this issue and the strategic insight that I have brought to the fight has enabled the plenum cable industry to maintain its position while our opponent has spent heavily in an effort to assume market share. I welcome your inquiries and I hope that I can find a sufficient number of sponsors to continue my work in the plenum cable debate. Please feel free to pass this along to other interested parties that you may know who might help our cause and my effort. Thank you for your review and consideration. If you have any questions about this most recent information, please feel free to call JMME at your convenience. John Moritz is President of JMME, Inc. , (http://www.jmme.com) a consulting firm providing manufacturers, end users and regulators with advice and strategic guidance on the important role plastics play in today's corporate and personal worlds. Since its inception, JMME has been dedicated to corporate responsibility for developing safe products, effective protections provided by codes and standards for the safe use of plastic products and the overall protection of sports participants and spectators through effective testing and development of plastic sports equipment. John has written numerous articles and presentations on issues related to the selection of plastics in various industries and their potential effects on the marketplace, environment and regulatory processes. John serves on numerous codes and standards technical committees where he has fought diligently to preserve the consensus process and the integrity of the documents. Inquiries are encouraged and welcomed. ©Copyright 2007, JMME, Inc. All rights reserved.
One of only seven global sponsors, Fluke Networks supports world finals of student competition this fall in Shizouka, Japan Fluke Networks, provider of innovative of Network SuperVision Solutionstm for the testing, monitoring and analysis of enterprise and telecommunications networks, has entered into a Global Sponsor Partnership with WorldSkills International. The first major sponsor event involving Fluke Networks will be the "International Skills Festival for All" to be held during November, 2007 in Shizouka, Japan. WorldSkills (formerly known as the "Skill Olympics") has come to symbolize excellence in vocational education and training. The WorldSkills Competition draws the best students from regional and national skill competitions held currently in over 45 countries/regions. Competitions are held in 40 official categories, including network-related fields such as telecommunication distribution technology and IT/software applications. "Our partnership with WorldSkills International allows Fluke Networks to help support, train and develop the workforce of tomorrow," said Paul Caragher, Fluke Networks President. "The young people demonstrating their skills at this year's competitions will be the ones entering the workplace in the very near future. This type of real-world vocational training benefits everyone." "WorldSkills International welcomes Fluke Networks as our newest Global Sponsor Partner," said David Hoey, Secretary General for WorldSkills International. "We recognize and thank Fluke Networks for their support of local and national events in past years, and look forward to the company's involvement on a global scale." Fluke Networks' Global Sponsor Partnership is further example of the company's ongoing commitment to education and skill development in the workplace. Additional activities in this area include Fluke Networks' continuing partnership with Cisco Systems, providing Cisco Networking Academies with access to essential test tools. Fluke Networks has also developed a networking lab course for vocational schools, college, and universities. Titled "Enterprise Network Testing, Monitoring & Analysis Solutions," this course helps both with career development and preparation for the WorldSkills competition. The 39th WorldSkills Competition will be held in Numazu City, Shizuoka Prefecture, Japan, November 14 to 21, 2007. Over four days of competition, more than 850 young people drawn from over 45 member countries/regions will test themselves against tough international standards in 47 key skills and technologies. These competitors will be contending for gold, silver and bronze medals in each skill category. About Fluke Networks
By James Carlini If we look at visionary planners that focus on developing greater metropolitan areas, we would find that the eventual growth from Chicago will spread up Lake Michigan into southeastern Wisconsin, including Milwaukee. Some envision that as the great “Mega-Metro area” on Lake Michigan stretching down from Milwaukee to Chicago. There are already commuters from Wisconsin that take a train into Chicago from as far away as Milwaukee on a daily basis. That number seems to be growing and the vision of creating a Mega-Metro center on the Lake already has some signs of existence. With all the new residential developments going forward in Chicago, the suburbs, and now southeastern Wisconsin, people have many choices for living in different areas. There is an option to commute to downtown Chicago or telecommute from their house electronically. With a good choice for home office packages from the network carriers that support their area, workers may also have an option to stay at home on days when the weather is bad or when some other issue pops up. There are also a growing number of companies that provide flexibility for telecommuting from the house. What is available on the network side? With current service offerings like DSL, the network packages for a home office are pretty cut and dried. It's too bad we do not have Verizon up here because they have packages today that offer 50Mbps. You need fiber to the home to get higher connectivity, and in almost all cases we are far from having that as a viable option in the near future. After looking at available connectivity for the home, the next big issue is to look at how easy it is to get to work every day. Do you drive or take public transportation? Is public transportation even a viable option? Public transportation? Take the "A" train Lately, there have been some major developments that would lead you to believe that the Mega-Metro center vision is being further implemented. These developments will depend on access to public transportation to entice workers to become commuters. If you are living in the Chicago area, you have the CTA as well as various commuter train lines coming in that are managed by METRA. Today, there is a METRA line that extends north all the way to Kenosha, Wis. The trouble with that line is that it has a lot of stops and is not as swift as the AMTRAK line that goes from Milwaukee to Chicago's Union Station. AMTRAK has only two stops in between - Glenview, Ill. and Sturtevant, Wis., just west of Racine. In Racine, there are several downtown residential and mixed-use developments that are positioning that city to attract the working commuter, with some nice alternatives to downtown Chicago condos. It is a good strategy. One Racine development, Pointe Blue, will be right on Lake Michigan and will offer a mixture of waterfront villas, single-family homes, boulevard townhomes, and a residential tower. The marketing strategy is that some people that work in Chicago or Milwaukee would buy residences in Racine and commute every day. The question becomes, why would I buy a $450,000 condo in Racine if I can get one in Chicago and not have to commute? That is a big question, and it's critical to streamline that commute as much as possible. There are plans for a new light rail system that will make several stops from Racine to Kenosha to connect to the METRA station, but that is a long way off. The need to create a link-up from downtown Racine to the AMTRAK station, which is several miles west of downtown, appears to be a more viable and immediate solution. Rail collaborators AMTRAK must also put in more trains to fill up the options for daily commuters. If they do that, the region becomes much more desirable to the Chicago commuter, and real estate projects will be more marketable. The more expedient solution would be to put some buses on a route from downtown Racine to the AMTRAK station for a streamlined commute, instead of riding a commuter train to another city to jump on another train to get to Chicago. The concept of improving the overall infrastructure has to be a shared concept as well as a shared cost between local and county governments as well as the railroad authority. The multi-agency dependence is clearly evident in this case, and it's necessary for making this endeavor successful with the real estate developers. Are all the planning committees and project executives speaking to one another on this endeavor? They should be because saving the money on building the light rail system could be put to good use financing other key endeavors. CARLINI-ISM: Successful new developments depend on maximizing the infrastructure to support them. Copyright 2007 - James Carlini Recent articles by James Carlini • James Carlini: H-1B jobs: Where is the shortage of skilled workers? • James Carlini: Proposed telecom bill would have “Katrina” impact • James Carlini: Lack of connectivity is real estate's hidden time bomb • James Carlini: State video franchises vs. universal service: Grasping the total picture • James Carlini: Getting beyond the vortex of corporate mediocrity James Carlini is an adjunct professor at Northwestern University, and is president of Carlini & Associates. He can be reached at james.carlini@sbcglobal.net or 773-370-1888. Check out his blog at http://www.carliniscomments.com .
Company Secures Position for Growth in Enterprise Segment Poised to secure a stronger foothold in the enterprise hard drive market segment, Hitachi Global Storage Technologies (Hitachi), today announced a trio of new products: the 15K RPM Ultrastar® 15K300, 7200 RPM Ultrastar A7K1000, and the company's first small form factor (SFF) enterprise hard drive, the 10K RPM Ultrastar C10K147. Hitachi's new hard drives target a broad range of enterprise storage systems, from mission-critical and lower duty cycle storage applications to servers, delivering the quality and reliability customers have come to expect from Hitachi's Ultrastar enterprise-class hard drives. Expanded enterprise segment participation is a key element of Hitachi's plan for business excellence as the segment continues to experience consistent growth and drive technology innovation that can be leveraged across other Hitachi products. Delivering a new portfolio of enterprise hard drives in 2007 helps support Hitachi's profitability initiatives and places the company in a strong position to achieve its goal of 20 percent year-to-year volume growth in enterprise. Accelerating the Transition to Small Form Factor A key new product in Hitachi's enterprise product portfolio is the Ultrastar C10K147, the company's first small form factor enterprise hard drive. The Ultrastar C10K147 was developed specifically for the high performance, low power requirements of servers. According to IDC, the industry is expected to experience a fast ramp in shipments from 2.4 million in 2006 to 9.4 million in 2007 as cost, space and low power considerations in data centers drive the need for a transition to SFF. The delivery of the Ultrastar C10K147 is timed to capitalize on and accelerate this increasing demand. "As the first to market with a full portfolio of small form factor SAS-based servers and storage, HP offers customers innovations that maximize the performance, reliability, power savings and other efficiency advantages of their IT investments," said Ron Noblett, vice president, Shared Technology, Industry Standard Servers and BladeSystem Division, HP. "With Hitachi as a valued technology provider and its Ultrastar C10K147, we will continue to help drive the industry's transition into the small form factor market." As businesses and their IT organizations experience a transition to an all-digital world - voice, images and video - the requirement to capture, store and access such data increases exponentially. This information is replicated over and over on the Internet, in servers and in data centers - all on the backbone of enterprise hard drives. Hitachi's broad product portfolio allows enterprise customers to create infrastructures with the optimal mix of hard drives that address the performance, power, capacity and cost parameters for the varying storage and data-access requirements that exist in the storage hierarchy. "HDD suppliers face an increasing number of demands from enterprise data centers ranging from power and cooling, higher performance, less physical space, to higher capacities," according to John Rydning, research manager for hard disk drives at IDC. "Enterprise HDD vendors, like Hitachi, with a broad portfolio of enterprise HDDs gives customers and system OEMs product choices to satisfy a wide range of enterprise storage requirements." Platforms Built for Reliability Hitachi's new Ultrastar hard drives are built upon technology proven for reliability, leveraging the system architecture and electronics of their predecessors. The 15K300 is the next generation of the popular 15K147, which has been qualified at major enterprise storage OEMs. The Ultrastar A7K1000 represents the next generation of the Deskstar E7K500, which has become the most popular hard drive for Enterprise SATA applications, with demonstrated reliability in the field. The Ultrastar A7K1000 is set to continue the reliability standard with a targeted 1.2 million hours mean time between failure(1) (MTBF). "The enterprise market segment is an extremely important business for Hitachi. Our customers are providing the critical storage infrastructure that supports end-users' ability to create, store and share digital content," said Shinjiro Iwata, chief marketing officer, Hitachi Global Storage Technologies. "Our OEM customers have identified our products as setting the standard for quality, and building on this successful track record, our 2007 product portfolio helps position Hitachi to further expand our enterprise segment participation and achieve our volume-growth targets." Demonstrated Enterprise Market Expertise Hitachi's enterprise "triple play" of hard drives is built on a deep understanding of the enterprise market. From product design through consistent manufacturing output, the company maintains a persistent focus on producing reliable products that meet the unique needs of three critical segments of the enterprise storage hierarchy: · Ultrastar 15K300 - Built for mission-critical enterprise computing environments
-- 3.5-inch, 15,000 RPM, up to 300GB · Ultrastar C10K147 - Optimized for the power, performance requirements of servers
-- SFF 2.5-inch 10,000 RPM, up to 147GB · Ultrastar A7K1000 - High capacity, low-cost per gigabyte for lower duty cycle enterprise environments
-- 3.5-inch, 7,200 RPM, up to 1TB To learn more information about Hitachi's new enterprise hard drive portfolio, listen to our Enterprise HDD Podcast at: http://www.podtech.net/home/corporate/2744/hitachi-gsts-doug-pickford- on-the-storage-infrastructure-high-effiency-drives (Due to its length, this URL may need to be copied/pasted into your Internet browser's address field. Remove the extra space if one exists.) Availability The Ultrastar 15K300 is available now with production quantities available in the first week of May 2007. The Ultrastar C10K147 and Ultrastar A7K1000 will be delivered in the second quarter of 2007. Technical Specifications: Ultrastar 15K300
-- 300 / 147 / 73 GB (GB = 1 billion bytes, accessible capacity may be less) Ultrastar C10K147
-- 147 / 73 GB (GB = 1 billion bytes, accessible capacity may be less) Ultrastar A7K1000
-- 1000 / 750 / 500 GB (GB = 1 billion bytes, accessible capacity may be less) 1. This MTBF measurement is based on a sample population and is estimated by statistical measurements and acceleration algorithms under lower duty cycle workload and nominal operating conditions. MTBF ratings are not intended to predict an individual drive's reliability. MTBF does not constitute a warranty. About Hitachi Global Storage Technologies With its legacy in hard drive invention, Hitachi GST led the industry in celebrating the storage technology's golden anniversary in 2006. The hard drive has had a profound effect on the computing and consumer electronics industries after five decades of innovation. That heritage lives on at Hitachi GST today through products that define the standard for hard drive miniaturization, capacity, performance and reliability. With approximately 33,000 employees worldwide, Hitachi GST offers a comprehensive range of hard drive products for desktop computers, high-performance servers, notebooks and consumer devices. For more information, please visit the company's Web site at www.hitachigst.com. About Hitachi, Ltd.
RHINO Professional Labeling Tools is
proud to announce the release of the RHINO 6000, its newest and most powerful
label printer ever. Built from the ground up to support the demanding labeling
needs of the electrical, datacom, security, construction and MRO markets – and
others – the RHINO 6000 delivers an ultra-powerful assortment of exclusive
features at a very affordable price.
Brandon Houk and Nach Lopez, BICSI Level 2 Installers with Able Communications, were among the 74 first-time attendees who were excited to be a part of the 2007 BICSI Spring Conference. “I am glad our company gave us the opportunity to come over here,” said Houk, of Arlington, Texas. “I hope we can continue to come to future BICSI conferences.” Overall, more than 1,800 participants visited the event, held last week in Dallas, Texas. Following several well-received presentations during the General Session on Monday, April 16, conference attendees had the opportunity to design their own schedules on Tuesday, selecting from over 16 Concurrent Session presentations. The wide assortment of session topics included reducing energy costs, low-voltage applications in multi-dwelling units, telecommunications cabinets, future technologies in clinical environments, data center construction and management, video signal transmissions, physical security, video security and surveillance systems, screened and shielded cabling systems, category 6 shielded cable, communications design for new laboratory environments, PON-Based FTTH and increasing marketplace demands on installation contractors. The evening closed with the ever-successful BICSI Reception and Exhibits in the Exhibit Hall. Many companies were exhibiting at the conference for the first time, noting that they typically visit BICSI’s winter or fall shows. There were also a few who unveiled the latest ITS products or solutions. Said Jeannie Rayle, with Circa Telecom, “This is the first spring show that we have been to, and I have to say, this has been a very productive show for us.” Participants continued to show their undying generosity for the charities that are supported at every BICSI Conference through donations to the BICSI Cares charity organization. This year’s receiving charity was the Summer Santa organization, who works to remind everyone that giving and volunteering on behalf of children in need ought to be a year-round activity and not just a thing we do during the holiday season. Summer Santa representatives were on hand during the Closing Session ceremonies to receive a check in the amount of $11,700. “You don’t know how much we appreciate this, and how much this is going to provide for a lot of kids this summer season,” said Lori Burr, Chairman of Summer Santa. The closing keynote presentation featured motivational speaker Jim Morris, co-author of his autobiography, “The Oldest Rookie,” which inspired the 2002 movie “The Rookie” starring Dennis Quaid. Morris offered many poignant thoughts to the audience as he shared life lessons learned mixed with a host of funny anecdotes. He stated, “I realized I had been given a second chance to fulfill my life’s dream.” He reminded the audience that “even though we all make mistakes in life,” they should remember to never give up on reaching their goals and dreams. BICSI is a professional association supporting the information transport systems (ITS) industry with information, education and knowledge assessment for individuals and companies. BICSI serves more than 24,000 ITS professionals, including designers, installers and technicians. These individuals provide the fundamental infrastructure for telecommunications, audio/video, life safety and automation systems. Through courses, conferences, publications and professional registration programs, BICSI staff and volunteers assist ITS professionals in delivering critical products and services, and offer opportunities for continual improvement and enhanced professional stature. Headquartered in Tampa, Florida, BICSI membership spans nearly 100 countries. www.bicsi.org
We’re now getting close to
the end of the development process to revise the 2005 National Electrical Code and turn it in
to the 2008 edition. Highlights include the following: By Deborah O’Mara Interest and demand for integrated systems are at an all-time high. In every business, integrating data communication with information technology and physical security is commonplace. At home, customers are hungry for the latest products that promote mobility, convenience and entertainment. Integrated systems may be part security, but more often, they incorporate automation, lighting control, whole-house audio and video, gaming and more. Why the rush to embrace integrated systems? The fact is product availability and the downward-spiraling cost now makes integrated systems more attainable. Baby boomers may be fueling the demand as much as their offspring. They have become accustomed to the convenience and service afforded by high-speed Internet and broadband connections, Wi-Fi networks and, in general, multitasking solutions that come in a small package and are easier to use. People want convenience, and now, costs for products have come down significantly. We’re entrenched in Moore’s Law (a founder of Intel who devised the premise that computer technology doubles every two years), but it might be happening at an even faster pace than he predicted. Computer, microprocessor and multitasking technologies definitely are driving IBS system growth. There is a merging of formerly distinct connectivity methods—think hardwired and wireless—and mobile communications penetration is at an all-time high. Former proprietary systems have moved to open architecture. Wide area and local area networks (LANs) can be wireless, satellite or a combination of multiple technologies. The existing Ethernet has become the perfect place to deploy everything from data to surveillance to a range of other systems and services. Manufacturers in every sector are partnering to play off each other’s strengths, and this is also resulting in new products and equipment. The continued proliferation of bundled broadband services is also bringing high-speed data networks to the home, rather than simply the office or business. The line between hardware and software continues to blur as products become all-in-one, multifunction devices. Every market is getting in on what technology has to offer. For example, a London clinic recently started using a combination Wi-Fi network and wireless chip technology to track valuable equipment and assets. At the Hoover Dam, bordering Arizona and Nevada, surveillance cameras with built-in mini computers monitor the site 24/7 and capture high-resolution images. At U.S. Customs, biometrics is being deployed for immigration credentials. Hear about the new global positioning and tracking collar system for Fido? It’s another new entrant to the technology playground. No single technology stands alone. Rather, multiple offerings piggyback on each other to communicate, send data and automate and secure the home and office. Whether you call it digital living, integrated systems or mobile convenience, the market is headed up in both business and home sectors. “U.S. spending on digital living services and products is expected to reach nearly $300 billion by 2010, driven by the rapid adoption of Internet and mobile services,” said Stuart Sikes, president of Parks Associates, Dallas. Bridging products and services According to Parks Associates, the U.S. home controls market is expected to exceed $3 billion in 2007. A recent report by Parks Associates, “Home Systems: Home Controls Update,” states that by 2010, more than 30 million households will have a network that bridges numerous products and extends the entertainment experience to multiple rooms in the home. Home controls will benefit greatly from this increasing connectivity and the market will grow steadily over the next six years, exceeding $4 billion in 2010 and reaching $6 billion by 2012. “Historically, home control systems have been associated with the new-home market,” said Bill Ablondi, director of home systems research for Parks Associates. “We will see this trend change dramatically over the next few years as power line and wireless technologies eliminate the need to rewire existing homes in order to provide control and audio/video distribution capabilities. With the population of pre-existing homes open to home controls, this market will have immense potential.” Contractors need to know the market for home controls, according to Parks Associates, lacks consumer awareness, not technical capability. “The entry of high-profile companies, together with the increasing adoption of broadband and connected-entertainment services, will help overcome this hurdle,” Ablondi said. Wireless innovation Wireless and mobile services also are driving demand through the roof. Reliability has increased, and range and sustainability have improved. Consumers who want to stream photos, movies and music from PCs to TVs and other video displays around the house will soon be able to do so through new wireless connections for in-home distribution. At the International Consumer Electronics Show (CES), produced by the Consumer Electronics Association (CEA), the gathering was characterized by the convergence of broadband, content and consumer electronics. The CES show floor included some 20,000 product launches and major partnership announcements spanning industries and connecting consumers with more features, services and control of the content incorporated into electronic devices. “The show had buzz and optimism and attracted the world leaders of the content, technology and services, communications and automobile industries,” said Gary Shapiro, president and chief executive officer of CEA. Some of the technologies featured on the show floor included digital imaging products, robotics, in-vehicle entertainment, content-shifting devices and gaming/Internet products, in addition to advancements in audio and home theater. Every sector of the economy is feeling the excitement of integrated systems and services. The home building market is another example. The increased popularity of installed home technology has resulted in more than 60 percent of builders and contractors employing custom technology installers in 2006, according to the CEA’s Fifth Annual State of the Builders Study released at the International Builders Show in January. Custom technology installers “The fact that builders and contractors employ technology installers as often as security installers and electrical contractors is proof that custom technology installation is quickly becoming the fourth trade,” said Joe Bates, CEA director of research. “Consumers are increasingly asking for installed technologies, whether it’s for a home theater room or an intricate network complete with servers and structured wiring. Clearly, builders, contractors and consumers believe these offerings are no longer just ‘the wave of the future’ but a reality from which builders and contractors are reaping the benefits,” Bates said. The telecommunications industry is also benefiting from the surge in connectivity and integrated systems. In 2006, the U.S. telecommunications market grew at its fastest rate since 2000, showing convergence continues to stimulate the telecommunications industry, according to the Telecommunications Industry Association’s (TIA) 2007 Telecommunications Market Review and Forecast. TIA’s annual review of the telecom industry shows the U.S. market grew 9.3 percent in 2006 to total $923 billion in revenue, while the worldwide telecommunications market grew 11.2 percent to $3 trillion. Demand for broadband and high-speed services is fueling this growth, as carriers invest in fiber, IP technology and wireless infrastructures to provide state-of-the-art voice, video and data services, according to the study. Drink it up “Consumers are thirsty for broadband, and this report shows carriers are rushing to meet the demand,” said Grant Seiffert, TIA president. “Technologies like voice over Internet protocol [VoIP] and broadband video, as well as mobile data services, are sparking new growth in the telecommunications industry. As a result, carriers are offering more competitive all-in-one bundled packages, and consumers are seeing lower prices and more services.” The report further forecasts growth in competing broadband technologies such as fiber, satellite, wireless and broadband over power line, which, combined, will account for more than 11 percent of broadband subscribers in 2010. However, in 2006, cable modems and digital subscriber line (DSL) technology continued to dominate the United States, capturing 96 percent of the broadband market, which in 2005 overtook dial-up service. By 2010, 87 percent of Internet connections will be over broadband technology. More U.S. businesses are using communication systems based on Internet protocol technology. The adoption of IP-based converged enterprise network equipment has surged during the past two years as leases of legacy equipment have expired, the report says. IP/converged systems are expected to overtake traditional enterprise systems by 2009. Don’t just think of your company as cable installer or electrical contractor, but rather, as a custom technology services provider. This will help position you and your company for the future. Consider what your customers will want and need in the near future and perhaps include the following in your product/company mix: ■ Digital living services and conveniences ■ Lifestyle products for business and entertainment ■ Installers who are savy in hardwired and wireless and can bring their expertise to the table ■ Automated functions that are easy to use from touchscreens, cellular phones or other in-home or mobile hardware Now that you know the customer’s motivation, you are ready to position yourself as an IBS specifier and installer and propel your company to future success. EC O’Mara is the president of DLO Communications in Park Ridge, Il., specializing in low-voltage. She can be reached at 847.384.1916 or domara@earthlink.net. Reprinted with Full Permission of Electrical Contractor Magazine April 2007 issue
Anixter International Inc. (NYSE: AXE - News), the world's leading distributor of communication products, electrical and electronic wire & cable and a leading distributor of fasteners and other small parts ("C" Class inventory components) to Original Equipment Manufacturers ("OEMs"), today reported results for the quarter ended March 30, 2007. First Quarter Highlights -- Sales of $1.33 billion, including $33.6 million from the acquisitions of IMS, Inc. ("IMS") in May 2006 and MFU Holdings S.p.A. ("MFU") in October 2006, rose 24 percent compared to sales of $1.07 billion in the year ago quarter. -- Quarterly operating income of $90.4 million reflected a 52 percent increase from the $59.6 million reported in the first quarter of 2006. -- Net income in the quarter, inclusive of income of $3.4 million or 8 cents per diluted share primarily related to the settlement of certain income tax audits, increased 71 percent, to $53.6 million, or $1.27 per diluted share, from $31.3 million, or 74 cents per diluted share, in last year's first quarter. -- Cash flow from operations was $65.8 million as compared to $12.9 million in the year ago quarter. Financial Highlights (In millions, except per share amounts)
Three Months Ended Mar. 30, Mar. 31, Percent 2007 2006 Change
Net Sales $1,328.7 $1,070.5 24% Operating Income $90.4 $59.6 52% Net Income $53.6 $31.3 71% Diluted Earnings Per Share $1.27 $0.74 72% Diluted Weighted Shares 42.0 42.4 -1% Robert Grubbs, President and CEO, stated, "We are pleased to note that the same trends that drove record performance in 2006 have remained largely intact through the first few months of the new year. At this time, all indications are that these trends will continue for the next few quarters. Assuming strong market conditions and continued success in our ongoing initiatives to expand our business, we should be in a position to have another very good year. First Quarter Results For the three-month period ended March 30, 2007, sales of $1.33 billion produced net income of $53.6 million, or $1.27 per diluted share. Included in the current year's first quarter results were sales of $33.6 million from the acquisitions of IMS and MFU in May and October 2006, respectively. Also included in this year's first quarter is income of $3.4 million or 8 cents per diluted share primarily related to the settlement of certain income tax audits. In the prior year period, sales of $1.07 billion generated net income of $31.3 million, or 74 cents per diluted share. Operating income in the first quarter increased 52 percent to $90.4 million as compared to $59.6 million in the year ago quarter. For the latest quarter, operating margins were 6.8 percent compared to 5.6 percent in the first quarter of 2006. First Quarter Sales Trends Commenting on first quarter sales trends, Grubbs said, "Sales in the first quarter grew at a year-over-year organic rate of 19 percent after adjusting for the IMS and MFU acquisitions as well as the favorable foreign exchange impact of $25.9 million on first quarter 2007 sales. This organic growth clearly exceeded our target of 8 to 12 percent as we once again saw very strong customer demand across a broad mix of end markets." Grubbs continued, "The factors driving our organic growth were consistent with those we have seen during the past year. In the most recent quarter, we again saw strong larger project business, particularly as it relates to data center builds in the enterprise cabling market and energy / natural resources customers within the electrical wire & cable market. At the same time, we have continued to experience strong growth in the security and OEM markets. Lastly, higher copper prices continued to contribute to our organic growth in the most recent quarter, with market-based copper prices averaging approximately $2.71 per pound during the quarter compared to $2.25 per pound in the year ago first quarter and $3.20 per pound in the fourth quarter of 2006. We estimate that the higher copper prices accounted for approximately $35.0 million of our year-on-year quarterly increase in sales within the electrical wire & cable market. Excluding the impact of copper prices, the IMS and MFU acquisitions and foreign exchange, however, we were still able to grow company-wide sales by 15 percent over the prior year first quarter." "Specifically, in North America we saw year-over-year sales grow by 19 percent to $927.0 million in the most recent quarter," commented Grubbs. "In addition to strong end-market demand, North American sales were up $12.2 million due to the acquisition of IMS and an estimated $31.4 million due to higher copper prices. Foreign exchange had a negative impact of $1.3 million. In Europe, we saw sales climb by 39 percent versus the year ago quarter, of which $26.4 million was due to exchange rate differences, $21.4 million was due to the acquisition of MFU at the end of October 2006 and $3.6 million was due to higher copper prices in the electrical wire & cable business. Taking out exchange rate differences, acquisitions and copper effects, sales in Europe still grew organically by 16 percent as compared to the year ago quarter." "In the emerging markets of Latin America and Asia Pacific, we saw a 34 percent increase in year-on-year sales, with a favorable impact of $0.8 million from currency exchange rate effects. Growth was particularly strong in Asia Pacific, which posted year-on-year growth of nearly 80 percent," continued Grubbs. First Quarter Operating Results "As a result of very strong sales growth, first quarter operating margins were 6.8 percent as compared to 5.6 percent in the year ago period," said Grubbs. "In North America, the 19 percent sales growth drove an improvement in operating leverage, which generated operating margins of 7.6 percent compared to 6.0 percent in the prior year first quarter. While strong market conditions and market share gains were the primary drivers of the sales growth and improved profitability, copper prices also contributed to first quarter operating results. Specifically, copper prices added an estimated $31.4 million to North American electrical wire & cable sales, which added an estimated $5.6 million to first quarter operating income as compared to the year ago quarter." Grubbs added, "In Europe, operating margins in the most recent quarter were 4.6 percent as compared to 3.4 percent in the year ago quarter. This significant improvement in operating margins reflects the operating leverage we gained as a result of strong organic sales growth and the acquisition of MFU. Operating income in the quarter was, however, negatively impacted by copper price changes. While year-on-year increases in copper prices added to sales in Europe, the first quarter short-term drop in copper prices reduced gross profit and operating income by $0.7 million. This reduced operating margins by 28 basis points. We were again encouraged by the results in the most recent quarter as well as the near term outlook for our business in Europe." "First quarter operating margins in the emerging markets were 5.7 percent as compared to 7.4 percent in the year ago quarter. The year ago first quarter benefited from a gain of $2.2 million related to a favorable sales tax settlement and, after excluding this gain, the year ago operating margins were 4.3 percent. Continued sales growth throughout these markets once again allowed us to achieve better leveraging of infrastructure costs that resulted in improved operating margins," added Grubbs. Cash Flow and Leverage "In the first quarter we generated cash from operations of $65.8 million as compared to $12.9 million in the year ago quarter," said Dennis Letham, Senior Vice President - Finance. "In anticipation of continued positive cash flow and in order to improve the effectiveness of our capital structure, we completed two important capital structure transactions during the quarter. We repurchased a total of 3 million shares, or approximately 7.6 percent of our outstanding shares, at an average price of $54.23 per share. To finance this repurchase the Company sold $300 million, principal amount, of 1% Convertible Senior Notes, that mature in 2013." "As a result of these capital structure transactions our debt-to-total capital ratio at the end of the first quarter has increased to 52.5 percent as compared to 45.7 percent at the end of 2006. For the first quarter our weighted-average cost of borrowed capital was 4.8 percent, however, compared to 5.2 percent in the year ago quarter. At the end of the first quarter, 80 percent of our total borrowings of $950.9 million were fixed, either by the terms of the borrowing agreements or through hedging arrangements. We also had $233.3 million of available, unused credit facilities at March 30, 2007, which provides us with the resources to support continued strong organic growth and to pursue other strategic alternatives, such as acquisitions, in the coming quarters." Business Outlook Grubbs concluded, "2007 is off to a good start as most of the same underlying trends that generated record performance in 2006 continue to drive the business. If the underlying market fundamentals remain healthy and we continue to make solid progress on our strategic initiatives to build our security and OEM business, add to our supply chain services offering, expand the geographic presence of our electrical wire & cable business, and expand our product offering, 2007 has the potential to be another very strong year." "As we move into the next three quarters of 2007, we will be measuring our progress against three comparatively stronger quarters of performance that will have the effect of slowing the year-over-year reported rates of sales and earnings growth. Nonetheless, we believe that the current market conditions will allow us to continue growing organic sales in line with our stated goal of 8 to 12 percent. It is our expectation that sales growth at these rates will enable us to continue achieving better operating leverage over time." First Quarter Earnings Report Anixter will report results for the 2007 first quarter on Tuesday, April 24, 2007, and broadcast a conference call discussing them at 9:30 am central time. The call will be Webcast by CCBN and can be accessed at Anixter's Website at http://www.anixter.com. The Webcast also will be available over CCBN's Investor Distribution Network to both institutional and individual investors. Individual investors can listen to the call through CCBN's individual investor center at http://www.companyboardroom.com, or by visiting any of the investor sites in CCBN's Individual Investor Network (such as America Online's Personal Finance Channel and Fidelity.com). Institutional investors can access the call via CCBN's password-protected event management site, StreetEvents (http://www.streetevents.com). The Webcast will be archived on all of these sites for 30 days. About Anixter Additional information about Anixter is available on the Internet at http://www.anixter.com ANIXTER INTERNATIONAL INC. Condensed Consolidated Statements of Operations (In millions, except per share amounts) 13 Weeks Ended March 30, March 31, 2007 2006 Net sales $1,328.7 $1,070.5 Cost of goods sold 1,010.3 813.3 Gross profit 318.4 257.2 Operating expenses 226.1 196.7 Amortization of intangibles 1.9 0.9 Operating income 90.4 59.6 Interest expense (10.9) (8.5) Other, net 0.7 (0.1) Income before income taxes 80.2 51.0 Income tax expense 26.6 19.7 Net income $53.6 $31.3 Net income per share: Basic $1.42 $0.81 Diluted $1.27 $0.74 Average shares outstanding: Basic 37.8 38.7 Diluted 42.0 42.4 Geographic Segments Net sales: North America $927.0 $778.8 Europe 305.1 219.4 Asia Pacific and Latin America 96.6 72.3 $1,328.7 $1,070.5 Operating income: North America $70.8 $46.9 Europe 14.0 7.4 Asia Pacific and Latin America 5.6 5.3 $90.4 $59.6 ANIXTER INTERNATIONAL INC. Condensed Consolidated Balance Sheets March 30, December 29, (In millions) 2007 2006 Assets Cash and cash equivalents $45.5 $50.9 Accounts receivable, net 1,037.4 1,016.1 Inventories 947.9 904.9 Deferred income taxes 36.3 32.0 Other current assets 19.8 16.4 Total current assets 2,086.9 2,020.3 Property and equipment, net 65.2 62.0 Goodwill 382.5 364.8 Other assets 156.0 119.1 $2,690.6 $2,566.2 Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity Accounts payable $ 613.3 $ 506.8 Accrued expenses 162.7 203.4 Short-term debt 93.7 212.3 Total current liabilities 869.7 922.5 1.0% convertible senior notes 300.0 - 5.95% senior notes 200.0 200.0 Revolving lines of credit and other 197.1 238.2 3.25% zero coupon convertible notes 160.1 158.8 Other liabilities 103.9 84.7 Total liabilities 1,830.8 1,604.2 Stockholders' equity 859.8 962.0 $2,690.6 $2,566.2
The National Association of Electrical Distributors (NAED) will honor seven industry leaders at the 2007 NAED Annual Meeting in Washington, D.C. The award ceremony will take place during the Closing Event, the NAED Awards Banquet, on May 8 from 6:00 - 10:30 p.m. at the Marriott Wardman Park. The event will include dinner and entertainment by the comedy group, The Capitol Steps. NAED ANNUAL AWARDS Lee Hite, president and CEO of the Hite Company, Altoona, Pa., will receive NAED’s highest honor, the 2007 Arthur W. Hooper Award. This honor is presented to an individual who has led an exceptional career in electrical distribution spanning many years. Throughout his nearly 40 years in the industry, Hite has been active in NAED. He served as chairman in 1997. During his tenure, Hite oversaw NAED's move from Connecticut to St. Louis and guided the association through a complete restructure. In addition to his chairmanship, Hite has held a variety of positions on NAED committees, including chairman of the Your Emerging Talent (YET) group and vice president of the Eastern Region. He has also served as chairman of IMARK and has been very involved in several local community organizations. He was awarded the NAED’s Distinguished Service Award in 2002. Clyde and Marjorie Rutland of Wholesale Electric Supply Company of Houston are the recipients of the 2007 NAED Distinguished Service Award. The award is given in recognition of outstanding and dedicated service to NAED and the electrical industry. Clyde Rutland, chairman of the board, and Marjorie Rutland, president and CEO, have attended every Annual Meeting, regional conference and marketing area meeting since joining NAED in 1953. During their combined 120 years in the industry, Clyde and Marjorie have been actively engaged in NAED. Clyde served as NAED vice president from 1978 - 1982, was area chairman for eight years and was a member of the executive committee. Marjorie supported her husband’s role as vice president of NAED by hosting various events. She also served as a member of the function planning committee for Zone 37 for eight years. Square D/Schneider Electric will receive the 2007 NAED Award of Merit. This award is presented in recognition of a company or individual in the electrical manufacturing business that has been exceptionally active in promoting and supporting the wholesale electrical distribution industry. Chris Curtis, president of Schneider Electric US, will be accepting the award. The award recognizes the entire company’s outstanding contribution to the industry in several areas. Square D/Schneider Electric has gone above and beyond with its commitment to industry training through the NAED Education & Research Foundation; data synchronization through the Industry Data Exchange Association (IDEA); and creating efficiencies in the channel through NAED’s Special Pricing Authorization (SPA) initiative. In addition, the company generously supports volunteerism; it has dedicated time and resources to both NAED and other important initiatives, including assisting in the rebuilding efforts in the Gulf Region following Hurricane Katrina, partnering with Habitat for Humanity and participating in many local community-based activities. Robert Bukowsky, vice president of sales for Ideal Industries, Inc., will receive the 2007 NAED Associate Award. The award is given to an individual associated with an electrical manufacturing company who has made outstanding contributions to NAED and the electrical industry. During his 22 years in the industry, Bukowsky served on NAED’s Manufacturers’ Council and has been the council’s chairman for two years. He was appointed to the Associates Advisory Committee, represented manufacturers on the NAED Alternate Channels committee and is a supporter of the NAED Education & Research Foundation. NAED HONORARY LIFE AWARDS NAED’s Honorary Life Award recognizes retiring distributors and manufacturers who have made exceptional contributions to the channel during their careers. Ted Treadway is the retired president and CEO of the 102-year-old Treadway Electric Co. in Little Rock, Ark. In 2004, Treadway received NAED’s highest honor, the Arthur W. Hooper Award, which is presented to an individual who has led an exceptional career in distribution spanning many years. Treadway has enthusiastically supported NAED and distribution; he served on NAED’s Board of Directors for a total of 12 years, was regional vice president for the Southern Region, and participated in various NAED committees. Treadway has also served on various commodity committees over the years. He was also a founding member of IDEA, EDIC and the Electrical League of Arkansas. John Alton was CEO of Minerallac Co./Cully Enterprises, Inc. from 1991 - 2006. He has more than 35 years of experience in the industry. At Minerallac, Alton increased sales by a factor of 9, employment growth by a factor of 6, manufacturing square footage by a factor of 8 over 18 years. He was renamed Manufacturer of the Year by NEMRA in 1996 and chaired their NEMRA Manufacturers Group (NMG) from 1993 - 1995. He has served on many of NAED's distributor group and advisory committees and manufacturer's committees, often providing insight from the small manufacturer's perspective. Don Lee is the former owner and general manager of San Leandro Electric Supply Co. in San Leandro, Calif. Lee founded the company in 1964. At San Leandro Electric Supply, Lee's goal was to create the best, but not necessarily the biggest wholesale distributorship. During his 56 years in the industry, Lee was active with NAED, serving as an area manager for two terms, as a roundtable member for several NAED meetings, and as a member of NAED Board of Governors. Lee has also served on advisory committees for Ideal and Furnas Electric. He also received several citizenship awards from the city of San Leandro, Calif. NAED is the trade association for the $70+ billion electrical distribution industry. Through networking, education, research and benchmarking, NAED helps electrical distributors increase profitability and improve the channel. NAED's membership represents approximately 4,200 locations internationally. www.naed.org Even though it’s been done in this space a number of times in recent history, it is presently very hard to avoid writing about copper. After all, the red metal advanced by $1/pound in two months. That 40% move was a seeming repetition of the 2006 rally that took the basic electrical component to $4/pound by May. Further, thanks to the goddess Fortuna (who must have a thing for me!), I have been relentlessly right on copper. Yes, I know this is horribly immodest – but hey, how often am I ever going to be this right? Let me do an end-zone dance for once. You can verify this by checking any of the columns linked below. Should you go from one to another to another, you’ll see the following pattern:
Perhaps it’s not shocking that an electrical news site would be bullish on copper. But with just about everyone calling for a major correction in copper in 2007, we remained stubbornly optimistic. Thus far, we’ve been right. An obvious question is: Time to get aboard on the train, and talk about further strength in copper (and other commodities)? Or should we jump off now? Riding The Trend Traders of all kinds of stuff – stocks, bonds, commodities, sardines – say “the trend is your friend.” Warren Buffet has said and written that you should make a minimal number of investment decisions in your life, by which he means you should find good companies, buy their stock, and hold them forever (which he actually does). George Soros says the way to make a fortune is to identify the trend that is false, ride it for as long as it lasts, and then jump off just before everyone else realizes what you already know. This is a guy who reportedly made $1 billion in a single trade (betting against the British pound); even if you hate his politics, it’s hard to argue with his approach. Here are potential problems with TedMag’s copper-market-calling luck (or is it genius?) looking forward from here:
In other words, just because you were right once doesn’t mean you are ever going to be right again. And when one is right and copper goes to $4/pound, that could encourage one to stretch the prediction out further . . . “copper is going to $6.50/lb.” . . . a bit like saying the Dow is going to 400. Reasonable Expectations Let’s examine some elements of the analysis you’ve found here previously: Copper trades like a commodity. Commodity traders in London, New York, and elsewhere trade copper regularly – and some make a living at it. Typically, commodities bounce around in price. There can be huge, prolonged bounces up and down. Sometimes, these moves prove to be nothing more than big, headline-making . . . blips! Commodity traders (generally) rely on technical indicators. A “technical indicator” is (typically) a visual – a chart of price movement over time. There are many different ways to create such a chart (and many ways to read them) – which is why there are buyers and sellers! When a given item moves to an all-time high, as copper did in the spring of 2006, there are – in theory – no limits to how high it can go. The people who bought copper at $3.89/pound last year probably expected it to go to $5.25. If you look at a long-term price chart, one could argue in favor of that expectation (while simultaneously acknowledging that it probably was unreasonable). Premise #1 upon which TedMag.com has based its prediction remains shrouded in mystery. We don’t know what’s going on in copper supply/demand in China. We know that country has a growing appetite for all kinds of “stuff” – especially as it grows, expands electrical output, brings more people into cities, adds numbers to its middle class, and prepares for the 2008 Olympics. But no one (perhaps not even the Chinese) has a handle on the country’s warehouse stocks of copper, its weekly or monthly consumption, or demand over the next six months. Premise #2, as advanced here, was
that at least part of the story of copper’s price strength was about weakness
in the U.S. dollar. The U.S dollar remains weak. For a gauge of “how weak is
it, anyway?” I monitor the dollar-yen exchange rate. I believe the yen should
be about 83 to the dollar; right now it’s at about 119. All of this adds up to what we’ve seen. Here’s a five-year chart of copper, just in case you’ve somehow ignored this. Previous Conclusion . . . Still Valid? There are 14 TedMag special reports covering copper below (13 of them solely on the subject) – dating back to early 2005. Perhaps it’s a credit to TedMag.com that it’s accommodated that much commentary on copper in the past 2+ years. On the other hand . . . maybe I’ve become Johnny One-Note? Go back to the two-part series from early 2005, you find some background. Re-reading these early columns, I’m chagrinned and proud (a tough exacta) – Stupid: I said copper was used in power T+D cables. It ain’t. Aluminum is. Smart: As a throwaway line in 2/05, in the process of explaining why copper was going to rise in price forever (think China/India), I wrote that Uranium was a buy. The stuff was priced at around $20/pound. Recently, it’s gone over $100. Summary: Here’s what I said about copper’s price future in the column posted 2/15/05: Demand for copper in China and India -- for internal consumer uses -- will be huge, for at least the next 15 years. What could stop copper prices from soaring in the next 5,000 days -- to $1.60 a pound, $1.80 a pound, $2.00 a pound, or higher? And B. Copper producers develop more copper mines. This is possible -- copper is not as scarce in the Earth's crust as is, say, gold (3 parts per billion!). But developing a copper mine is no snap-of-the-fingers undertaking. Demand growth probably will outpace supply increases for three to five years . . . if not longer. And My personal belief is that "B" is the likely scenario, but that it will take a significant time for supply to catch up. In fact, I can see an ongoing "tortoise and hare" scenario, in which copper supply continually expands . . . but never quite catches up with [demand]. There’s the old saying – “from your lips to God’s ears.” Apparently, upon reading these paragraphs, some electrical distributors whispered that. These people, whoever they are, obviously have an extraordinary amount of influence with the big fella. Because – lo and behold, it happened! Next week – a bit more on the red metal, and other commodities. Have you checked out what’s been going on in nickel lately? Here’s a chart of the same 5-year period as above for copper. Nickel has actually outperformed! PREVIOUS COPPER COLUMNS ON TEDMAG Copper Sustains A Bounce (3/21/07) Copper’s Fall Isn’t About . . . Copper (1/24/07) Commodity Facts, Forecasts & Fears (12/20/06) Six Predictions for 2007 – see #5 (12/6/06) Copper Topping . . . Or Bottoming? (11/9/06) Copper Boom: No End In Sight – (Part III) (8/30/06) Copper & Inflation, Part II (8/22/06) Copper & Inflation – Part I of III (8/17/06) Inflation: Nearly Invisible Long-Term Changes (6/14/06) When Will Copper Prices Fall? (5/31/06) Is ‘Peak Copper’ Here, Now? (4/12/06) King Copper – More (6/1/05) King Copper, Part 2 (2/15/05) King Copper, Part 1 (2/8/05)
The Telecommunications
Industry Association (TIA) commends the Senate’s inclusion of provisions that
would bolster telecommunications research as part of its “America Creating
Opportunities to Meaningfully Promote Excellence in Technology, Education, and
Science (COMPETES)” Act (S. 761). ###
About TIA
There’s an ongoing debate between structured cabling/unshielded twisted pair (UTP) and fiber optics. Which method is better depends on the application. For large, data-hauling applications, nothing beats optical fiber. However, there’s still a place for UTP, and it also provides a high-performance method of connectivity. For 10 gigabits per second (10Gbps) Ethernet applications, UTP systems continue to improve. For example, Hubbell Premise Wiring, Milford, Conn., and Superior Essex Inc., Atlanta, recently announced that Intertek/ETL Semko independently tested the Hubbell/Superior Essex 10G UTP cabling system to the latest 10Gps TIA/EIA 568-B.2-10 Augmented Category 6, Draft 5.0 transmission performance requirements. The test verified the copper-based, unshielded cabling system complies to this latest industry performance standard. Fiber optics deployment is growing for both commercial and residential applications. Here as well, UTP and coaxial are deployed on the inside, with the optical connectivity reaching from the telephone company’s central offices to the premises. “Future use of fiber inside the home is expected to be minimal,” said Frank Murawski, president of FTM Consulting Inc., Hummelstown, Pa. Murawski authored the study, “Structured Cabling Systems Market,” which analyzes copper versus fiber cabling shipments and points to significant fiber growth in Ethernet applications. The study also predicted a significant market shift by 2008, as fiber becomes the dominant media for data centers, campus and fiber to the home (FTTH). “We project that copper UTP cabling will continue to dominate the horizontal cabling subsystem market in the future,” he said. “Fiber-to-the-desk [FTTD] will remain elusive, being a small percentage of the total horizontal cabling subsystem in the future. FTTD will be found mainly in niche applications in which speeds of 10Gbps or higher are required at the workstations. For example, any workstation handling a great deal of video feeds will be the typical application implementing FTTD in the future.” The study forecasts fiber-cabling shipments to grow from $1.2 billion in 2005, at a rate of 26.3 percent, to $4 billion by 2010. The highest growth application is projected to be data centers. The security side “Fiber will be used at network bottlenecks such as data centers,” Murawski said. In security applications, he said, “fiber is used in video surveillance primarily to support longer cable runs—for example, a city’s street camera deterrent system.” FTTH continues to make significant inroads, and telephone companies have been laying optical cabling from their central offices for a decade or more. Now a provider is needed to extend what the telephone companies have laid to residential customers, and that’s beginning to happen. Verizon recently began its marketing FTTH service, called FiOS Internet, in select areas. FiOS service includes access to newsgroups, up to nine Verizon e-mail accounts, online services and 10 MB of personal Web space. Service perks include online gaming, video chatting such as instant messaging, feature films downloads and CD-quality audio. Inside the home, structured cabling networks, UTP or coaxial still provides LAN connectivity. Therefore, to implement FiOS, Verizon technicians evaluate the wiring in the home to determine if existing coaxial or special data wiring such as Category 5 can be used. If necessary, they install coaxial or Category 5 runs from an optical fiber network terminal on the outside of the building (like a telephone company network interface but for fiber) to the home’s router. New alliances in the traditional control and connectivity industries are also developing and boosting fiber market share. Leviton Manufacturing Co., Little Neck, N.Y., recently announced an alliance with AFL Telecommunications, Spartanburg, S.C., to bring the benefits of FTTH service to homeowners. The alliance supports the needs of residential developers and builders seeking to integrate FTTH in multifamily dwellings and master-planned communities. |